Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 41.563181 49.045800 57.248108 66.874742 77.829939 89.874879 104.084566
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 28.984857 38.511063 49.985912 64.688581 82.875831 104.476337 131.895797
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.639946 33.021961 46.472243 64.878676 89.075630 119.433465 159.979826
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.661322 29.478441 44.378713 65.904664 95.623516 134.559348 188.656903
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.113016 24.172508 38.905856 61.351122 93.833546 138.167965 202.073869
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.253859 22.438788 38.120813 63.047987 100.483961 153.226696 231.424049
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.253624 20.091170 36.015698 62.409191 103.497869 163.173249 254.042064
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.560984 19.785988 37.012211 66.517599 113.750451 183.969075 293.085703
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.631777 16.945652 33.456013 62.927119 111.765261 186.478392 305.481129
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.940432 16.274454 33.477981 65.158321 119.028731 203.199346 339.710059
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.653213 16.340528 34.790155 69.657173 130.218972 226.492015 384.938294
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.060081 15.674325 34.661467 71.577298 137.192726 243.456725 421.115099
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.205183 14.402824 33.437110 71.805523 142.010383 258.375769 456.747001
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.227771 12.654118 31.054251 69.689726 142.709607 266.883245 483.130422
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.620261 11.631571 29.981243 69.913142 147.526410 282.440241 521.689633
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.172433 10.898413 29.400104 71.007864 153.963160 301.043165 566.133748
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.413377 9.101934 26.128546 66.157654 148.722934 298.988542 575.647581
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.163708 8.696188 26.021392 67.965580 156.421837 320.155879 625.765300
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.823719 7.909191 24.848688 67.285041 159.097935 332.367291 660.847567
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.754206 7.987412 25.876860 71.660750 172.298564 364.498975 732.358381
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.366051 6.836454 23.482133 67.836820 168.266419 364.360626 746.338987
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.254133 6.656324 23.693846 70.213338 177.429472 389.544053 807.047861
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.227133 6.801724 24.848869 75.002785 192.079650 425.891977 889.529776